Rates and policy,
explained every week
Our weekly mortgage newsletter on the Bank of Canada, bond yields and BC housing policy, translated from the Korean edition. Each issue reflects its publication date.
October 2026
- Oct 22, 2026Weekly
Major Institutions Shift Ahead of the October 28 BoC Meeting: Rising Inflation Expectations and Diverging Forecasts
Why major banks shifted to calling a hike ahead of the October 28 BoC meeting, and how market consensus remains divided.
- Oct 21, 2026News brief
Q2 GDP Posts Fastest Growth in 3 Years — So Why Aren't Mortgage Rates Falling?
Q2 GDP grew at its fastest pace in three years, yet mortgage rates didn't fall. We explain why through the movement in bond yields.
- Oct 19, 2026News brief
CREA Cuts This Year's Home Sales Forecast for the Third Time: "A Roller-Coaster Year"
CREA lowered its 2026 home sales forecast for the third time; a summary of September sales and price data and the 2027 outlook.
- Oct 15, 2026Weekly
Canada's September Jobs Shock and the Surge in U.S. September CPI and PPI — So Why Are Bond Yields Falling? Where the October 28 BoC Decision Is Headed
Why bond yields fell despite Canada's sharp September job losses and surging U.S. inflation, and where the October 28 BoC decision is headed.
- Oct 8, 2026Weekly
Talk of Lifting the Foreign Homebuyer Ban in 2027: The Real Variable Driving the Housing Market
How the review of the foreign homebuyer ban, set to expire in 2027, could affect actual mortgage rates and buying power, alongside bond yield trends.
- Oct 2, 2026Weekly
Split Institutional Forecasts and Mixed U.S. Data: Zero Visibility Ahead of the October 28 BoC Decision
Ahead of the October 28 BoC decision, major institutions are sharply divided, and this week's U.S. bond and jobs data sent conflicting signals.
September 2026
- Sep 24, 2026Weekly
CIBC Pushes Back on October Rate Hike Talk: Trade Risk Gives the BoC Room to Hold
While markets bet on an October 28 BoC hike, CIBC argues tariff-driven growth risks give the Bank room to hold at 2.25% through 2027.
- Sep 17, 2026Weekly
Joint Tightening Warning from North America's Central Banks: The Shockwave from the Fed's Rate Hike and the BoC Minutes
Why hopes for rate relief in North America vanished after the Fed's hike and the BoC minutes' multiple-hike warning, and how variable and fixed borrowers should prepare.
- Sep 10, 2026Weekly
'Fiscal Dominance' and the Long-Bond Revolt: Why Market Rates Refuse to Fall
Global markets are being hit by a string of macro shocks at once: an all-out tariff war, surging oil prices and geopolitical conflict.
- Sep 3, 2026Weekly
A Warning of a Supply-Demand Breakdown in U.S. Long Bonds: Ray Dalio Diagnoses the Bond Market's Heart Attack
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warned in a TIME column of a structural supply-demand breakdown and debt problem in the U.S. bond market.
August 2026
- Aug 27, 2026Weekly
A Massive Global Bond Sell-Off — Are Canadian Fixed Mortgage Rates Rising Again?
Soaring U.S. national debt, a prolonged Middle East conflict and inflation worries are combining to shake bond markets around the world.
- Aug 20, 2026Weekly
U.S. Long Bond Yields Surge as the U.S. Treasury Expands Buybacks: Where Fixed Rates Go Amid a Bear Steepening
U.S. 20- and 30-year Treasury yields have climbed sharply, and a 'bear steepening' that widens the gap between short- and long-term rates is now in full swing.
- Aug 13, 2026Weekly
Canada–U.S. Trade Talks Go Full-Court Press: The 50% Tariff Threat and Where the Mortgage Market Goes Next
Ahead of the U.S.'s August 19 deadline for sweeping tariffs, the federal government has launched a full-court press in trade negotiations to stop them.
- Aug 6, 2026Weekly
U.S. Long Bonds Break 5.2% as the U.S. and Japan Activate the FIMA Repo: Rising Rates and the Line of Defence for the Mortgage Market
U.S. 20- and 30-year Treasury yields have topped 5.2%, a 20-plus-year high, as U.S.–Japan yen intervention and the Fed's FIMA repo facility come into play.
July 2026
- Jul 30, 2026Weekly
CMHC Officially Forecasts Falling Home Prices in 2026 — A Market-Wide Slowdown Expected This Year
CMHC has officially revised its outlook downward, now expecting home sales, prices and housing starts to all decline in 2026.
- Jul 23, 2026Weekly
The AI Infrastructure Boom and the Fed's Dilemma: What It Means for Canada's Mortgage Market
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has said AI-driven productivity gains should stabilize prices over the long run.
- Jul 16, 2026Weekly
The U.S. Economy's Shadow and Canadian Mortgages: The Triangle of Rates, the Dollar and Policy
The Bank of Canada's (BoC) monetary policy calculations have recently become very complicated.
- Jul 9, 2026Weekly
Iran Risk Reignites and NATO Boosts Defence Spending: The Fallout of Rising Long-Term Bond Yields
Oil jumped after news the U.S.-Iran ceasefire ended, and NATO agreed to sharply raise defence spending, pushing global long-term bond yields higher.
- Jul 3, 2026Weekly
U.S. June 'Jobs Shock' Eases Rate Hike Pressure: Breathing Room for the Mortgage Market
U.S. June non-farm payrolls rose by only 57,000, about half of what experts expected, delivering a 'jobs shock.'
June 2026
- Jun 25, 2026Weekly
BC's $3.2 Billion Housing Plan: Condo Purchases and Where the Market Is Headed
Ottawa and BC announced a $3.2 billion development support package and a plan to buy about 2,200 unsold condos to ease the condo inventory glut.
- Jun 18, 2026Weekly
Japan Enters the 1% Rate Era: Global Bond Yield Swings and the Ripple Effect on Mortgages
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1%, a 31-year high, adding a new variable for Canadian fixed mortgage rates as long-term bond yields rise.
- Jun 11, 2026Weekly
A World Cup Effect? Surprise Rebound in Canadian and U.S. Jobs
May employment numbers in Canada and the U.S. came in well above expectations, surprising the market.
- Jun 4, 2026Weekly
Fixed Rates Rise Again, But an Opportunity for Some Borrowers
Fixed mortgage rates are climbing again, driven by the recent rise in Government of Canada bond yields.
May 2026
- May 22, 2026Weekly
Bank of Canada: "Not Yet Sure Which Way Rates Will Go"
Amid trade tariffs and oil price risks, the Bank of Canada says it does not see a clear path for the future direction of interest rates.
- May 14, 2026Weekly
Canadian Personal Insolvencies at Highest Level Since 2009: A Warning Light for the Mortgage Market
Consumer insolvencies in Canada recently hit their highest level since 2009, when the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis hit.
- May 7, 2026Weekly
Canada's Surprise Trade Surplus: An Illusion Created by Gold and Crude Oil, and Where Rates Are Headed
As Middle East geopolitical instability sent gold and oil prices soaring, Canada posted a surprise trade surplus for the first time in six months.
April 2026
- Apr 30, 2026Weekly
Global Bond Markets Shaken Again by Oil Price Risk
As U.S.–Iran geopolitical risk escalates again, global bond markets are weakening.
- Apr 23, 2026Weekly
Fed Chair Nominee Warsh's Hearing: 'Defending Independence' Dampens Hopes for Early Cuts
At Tuesday's confirmation hearing for Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, the White House-driven 'early rate cut' pledge the market quietly hoped for did not come.
- Apr 16, 2026Weekly
The Fed's 'Higher for Longer' Warning and the Bank of Canada's (BoC) Dilemma
Recent U.S. inflation data (PPI) and comments from Fed officials are adding to uncertainty in the Canadian mortgage market.
March 2026
- Mar 26, 2026Weekly
Oil Price Shock: A Canadian Rate Hike Scenario Emerges
With the oil price surge from the Middle East reviving inflation concerns, the interest rate outlook is shifting quickly.
- Mar 20, 2026News brief
Canadian Housing Starts Up 4.5% in February
Canada's housing starts rose slightly in February from January, showing continued construction activity in the market.