CREA Cuts This Year's Home Sales Forecast for the Third Time: "A Roller-Coaster Year"

Published Monday, October 19, 2026 · Rates, market figures and outlooks in this article reflect its publication date and may differ today. Ask us for the latest picture. Translated from the Korean original.

CREA (Canadian Real Estate Association) has lowered its 2026 home sales forecast for the third time this year. Annual sales are now expected to fall 5.2% from the previous year, with CREA pointing to rising fixed rates and uncertainty over variable rates as the forces weighing on the market. September sales also pulled back again after four straight months of modest gains.

Key Points

• 2026 forecast sales of about 444,530 units, down 5.2% year over year (January: up 5.1% → April: up 1% → July: down 1.4% → now: down 5.2%)
• 2026 national average price forecast to rise 0.2% to about $681,681 (about $5,000 lower than the summer forecast)
• September sales down 7.7% year over year and 2.3% month over month
• September average price about $666,538, down 1.6% year over year
• Home Price Index (benchmark home), down 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year
• About 200,000 listings at the end of September, up 1.8% year over year
• 2027 forecast: sales up 4.4% to about 464,235 units, average price up 1.2% to about $689,909

What It Means

This year can be summed up as a market that was repeatedly pulled around by the variable of interest rate uncertainty. Some in the field also observed that buyers rushing to lock in rates over the summer caused the fall market to wrap up earlier than usual. From the mortgage market's perspective, with a BoC rate hike before year-end widely expected, the tense standoff between buyers on the sidelines and sellers holding out is likely to continue for some time. CREA expects pent-up demand to return in 2027, as the direction of rates becomes clearer and population growth recovers. The October 28 BoC decision and the rate path that follows are the key variables for gauging when the market will recover next year.