Bank of Canada: "Not Yet Sure Which Way Rates Will Go"

Published Friday, May 22, 2026 · Rates, market figures and outlooks in this article reflect its publication date and may differ today. Ask us for the latest picture. Translated from the Korean original.

Amid recent trade tariffs and oil price risks, the Bank of Canada has stated that it does not see a clear path for the future direction of interest rates. Markets, too, are still expecting rate cuts while also pricing in growing uncertainty.

Key Points

1. Tariffs and rising oil prices → more inflation variables

2. Economic slowdown and price pressures exist at the same time

3. The Bank of Canada is not signalling any specific rate path

4. Future policy to take an even more data-dependent approach

5. Possibility of greater market volatility and rate uncertainty

What It Means

The Bank of Canada has entered a phase where it is thinking more about "when to move" than "where to take rates." Signs of an economic slowdown are increasing, but oil prices and global risks could also reignite inflation. In the end, the market is moving beyond simple rate-cut expectations to a stage where it prices in uncertainty itself, and the real estate and mortgage markets are likewise shifting into an environment where managing volatility matters more than direction.